What is a valuebet and how to take advantage from it ?

The valuebets are bets for which you assume that the odds provided by the bookmaker underestimate the real probability of the outcome and consequently displaytoo high odds. Betting on this outcome is attractive because you may profit from odds considered as favourable.

Be careful: unlike a surebet, the valuebet implies risks for the player. The formula for detecting valuebets is as follows:

Probability * Odds > 1

The valuebets explained by giving an example

Example: for the match between Lens and Lille, the best odds offered by a bookmaker (obtained thanks to the odds comparator offered by Moodds) for Lens is 1.9.

If a player estimates that the probability for Lens to win is 60%, here we have a valuebet because:

60 % * 1,9 = 1,14

According to the probability estimated by the player, the odds would have been 1 / 0.60 = 1.67. If the player is right in his estimation of the probability, his profit is now higher than in the case of Lens being the winner.

So the most important thing in detecting the valuebets is to be able to estimate accurately the probabilities of different outcomes and to defeat the bookmakers in this respect. But pay attention not to overestimate yourself and not to believe systematically in the victory of your favorite team!

Method to detect potential valuebets

There is a method todetect possible valuebets: you only haveto compare the average probability of an outcome (calculated on the basis of the odds given by several bookmakers) to the probability of that outcome given by the bookmaker who offers the best odds. The higher the difference, the higher the chance of having a valuebet.

Example: let us take again the example of Lens-Lille. The best odds offered by a bookmaker for Lens is 1.9. The average of the odds given by all bookmakers is 1.67. This means that the bookmakers estimate in average that the probability for Lens to win the match is 60%, while the odds of 1.9 underlies a probability of winning of only 52%: that bookmaker may be underestimating the probability of the outcome!